NHC Forecast Model Background and Information

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not generate a graphic of the models it uses to produce its forecasts. We do this because our past experience indicates such plots have confused users and detracted from our final message, which is producing official tropical cyclone forecasts and advisories. Some users have also become too reliant in the individual forecast scenarios presented by the many model forecast lines, some of which have little or no chance of being correct. This is not the message the NHC wants to send. (Please read our Mission and Vision).

There are also some logistical constraints. There are dozens of potential tracks deriving from all of the individual models, the various model ensemble members, etc. It would be difficult to decide which to show and we could not display them all clearly. Also, some models are only available every 12 hours, rather than every 6 hours, which leads to further complication of showing the data. We do offer the following links for background information on some of the models the NHC consults in making official forecasts.

Important Note:  An Updated Technical Summary of the NHC Track and Intensity Forecast Models is now available.

Other model background information:

Read about the Inland Wind Model and the Maximum Envelope Of Winds (MEOW)